One could argue that all stats are relative and local market data rules. Which is why sharing national stats with clients can be problematic.
Take for instance this August 25th MarketWatch headline: New home sales surged to highest level since 2006 in July, but builders could soon face headwinds. How does that play out in the Valley?
Let’s start with an excerpt from the cited U.S. Census release, “Sales of new single-family houses in July 2020 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 36.3 percent above the July 2019 estimate.”
Jim Daniel, president of RL Brown Housing Reports put that into local perspective by noting that July 2020 New Home Closings in the Valley were up 19.52% year-over-year.
Obviously, having accurate local market data can help manage client expectations.
That same MarketWatch article also raised questions about whether current demand is sustainable and if there will be another foreclosure wave.
Tina Tamboer, senior housing analyst for The Cromford Report said that even if there were a decline in demand, “supply is so low that it would take some time for (supply and demand) to unite and stall price appreciation.”
She agreed that more foreclosures are likely after the eviction moratorium ends, but it shouldn’t reach a crisis level.
“It doesn’t make logical sense for a homeowner in Greater Phoenix to choose foreclosure over other options — like taking on a roommate or doing a seller carry (if they have significant equity), or simply renting out the home for more than their mortgage payment,” Tamboer concluded.
Before sharing national statistics that may not apply locally, check-in with local experts.
ARMLS members can subscribe to The Cromford Report and access RL Brown’s Magic Pro. Anyone can view Brown’s Market Data Blog or subscribe to the Phoenix Housing Market Letter.
Related stories:
New Permits Surge in July for Valley Homebuilders
Maricopa County Nearly Doubles Existing-Home Sales in U.S.